CHINA: Good Morning RUSSIA
RUSSIA: Good morning
so, what’s the plan for new year bash ?
CHINA: with family......at home tonight.......on the famous mall road tomorrow!!!
and urs
RUSSIA: very much at Home
CHINA: i was just spending some time to understand what
RUSSIA: I never venture anything on the 31st night. often keep myself in the quite mood.
CHINA: nifty might do this year!
RUSSIA: ok
CHINA: that's good! same here...
RUSSIA: so, what does your study says?
CHINA: nifty around 3200 is a possibility which can't be ruled out
RUSSIA: that scares me
CHINA: i am looking at 10 yr nifty chart
RUSSIA: ok
CHINA: atleast 55% chance....
and that is hell of a chance
RUSSIA: 3200 nifty means my portfolio will be just 10% of the value invested
CHINA: i forgot that
u r an investor too
RUSSIA: very very much
CHINA: don't panic, just don't ignore that
RUSSIA: sure,
CHINA: besides, it will not drop the apple on newton's head
it will happen so slowly
RUSSIA: what my main concern is to know, what went fundamentally So wrong that, everyone on the street is so bearish.
CHINA: that nobody will feel it much!
RUSSIA: also, I was watching an interview yesterday
CHINA: there is hell hell hell lot of liquidity in the world....pumped to avoid default after default after default without any gdp growth........
see i didn't watch any interview.....
i just opened the 10yr chart
with a mood to analyze this aspect
and look what has just sneaked in my head
RUSSIA: wherein, motilal oswal guy was stating that, market often makes bottom when 99% people believe that market is heading even lower and start to sell their portfolios in Losses assuming that, they will enter at lower levels
could be
I don’t say it would not.. go down from here
CHINA: motilal oswal is a big big name. i agree with him
RUSSIA: but wondering what will be the spare of Indian economy after such down falls
CHINA: but a lot lot people are looking for upside as well
if we analyze indian economy, we may be shocked!
RUSSIA: yar, there are always 2 sides of a coin, people are bullish & bearish
what shocks you after analysis ?
CHINA: local economy mess coupled with global meltdown can cause this
RUSSIA: I agree, but still 6% GDP is better than 2% of the west economy
CHINA: govt can't take any political decision. no reforms (much needed) possible till feb elections.
see, the premium indian markets command is because of 8% growth rate not 6
RUSSIA: veer ji, I am of a camp, that nifty may go till about 4000 and make a reasonable ground to invite FIIs to invest for the next 10 years
CHINA: ultimately, fundamentals decide where market goes after all drama
RUSSIA: 3200 is bit too much of Pessimism
CHINA: just take the market to 4000, don't need any more pessimism to take it down to 3200
RUSSIA: correct
CHINA: let’s ask ourselves a basic question
today
RUSSIA: which amount to about 10% down from here
CHINA: i repeat - today
RUSSIA: pls
CHINA: are we seeing economy improving?
i ask a few qs
1.
interest rate going down?
not as of now
not today
RUSSIA: true
CHINA: 2. fresh capacity building taking place in various sectors?
no
3. is rupee ok
RUSSIA: no
CHINA: 4.
any chance of 1991 like policy boost?
this govt is crippled
5.
what's happening globally? is the worst over?
well,
the worst hasn't yet started
all europe, china and US are busy
since 1 year now
to stop the avalanche
how?
mindless liquidity pumping
where has the money gone?
nowhere...it is out there
RUSSIA: all above is true on the face of the mirror
CHINA: has the economic activity picked up to engage that money
no
ok
forget all this
let us
just try to list pro's
in favour of rise
1.
pl help me
just because it has fallen so much and
just because indicators are enough oversold
is no reason for nifty to go to 6000 and beyond!
RUSSIA: agree
fully
CHINA: nifty can't go that up without fii's
RUSSIA: very true
CHINA: fii's are not jerks to put their money in india...looking at our state of affairs
fii's would like to keep liquidity to face any eventuality in europe
see. one thing i always believe in
that
no real turnaround comes
in ;life as well as economy
till real real trouble
no jerk wakes up till real crisis
just look at the 10 yr graph
RUSSIA: ok
CHINA: we are slipping since nov 2010
earlier it looked like some correction
now it looks like slippage
2003 to 2007 was different
RUSSIA: but, we haven’t reach a level... where our economy has to see the graveyard
in such times only, smart money is invested... check what major investors like Jhunjunwala did in the past
CHINA: there was no graveyard situation in 2008 as well
conditions got created
RUSSIA: but veer ji, Guys invested in 2008 have made money even till now
let me prove it
pls allow me
TCS was below 600 now 1155
pls note Kotak was 280. I bought touched 900 before split and even now 455
SBI / TATA STEEL / even mid caps were dam cheap except the infra sector
almost all stocks bought in 2008 gave good returns
I will share an excel sheet with you
right away
I am not saying by any mean that, WE ARE NOT IN MESS
CHINA: times change
and we are at one of these historic turning points
RUSSIA: agree.. but cannot rule out the turnaround could be for positive even ..
one thing I have learnt
CHINA: yes, it can be. we should indentify the trend
RUSSIA: Stock market world wide
CHINA: courtesy u
i have been
pushed to start looking at swings
RUSSIA: discounts all what is to happen ( Future)
CHINA: i disagree with this a bit
this is spread by big money
big money knows it is going to do what it is.
goldman sachhs knew that subprime collapse was coming
infact they had betted heavily on it
RUSSIA: before a company starts to performs, you will see the stock jumping up with the next quarter results
CHINA: only they and players like that knew it
RUSSIA: i am no where denying it
CHINA: u know the difference between halaal and jhatka!
fii's believe in halaal termination
by that definition they are................
RUSSIA: all I am saying is... we may well be close to bottom as well and things may start to change now... I remember my early days of speaking with you, where in you yourself mentioned... that, In your views...
Market has either entered or about to enter for a long bullish trend
CHINA: RUSSIA even i am learning,
RUSSIA: we all for that matter
in punjabi there is a proverb..
CHINA: as a trader i like up as well as down equally.....u as an investor + trader naturally need to be worried
pl
RUSSIA: Ghar Pakki vekh ke kachi ni thahi di
I invested by mistake at the peak of 2007. and saw meltdown in 2008/2009
CHINA: i'm sure u and i will atleast be cautious after this
discussion'
RUSSIA: with bank going out of business ... us market being killed
yet , they are much better than any of us
today our problem is in 2 areas
1) Inflation which directly results in interest rate
2) Govt need to get up to do something on policy
Milesh shah is the best tech guy I respect the most in the stock market
The Guy behind ICICI prudentional
now with AXIS BANK a fund manager
as Fund manager
CHINA: yes, but govt is presently in minority. unable to get anything passed....just see fdi in retail.....opposition will want to kill the deeply injured govt completely.......no 1991 for another year.
what does milesh say?
RUSSIA: He did say.. that FIIs are so smart that, while they sell they also make market so lazy and Tired that, Investor lose interest and in suicidal thoughts, often kill their portfolio by jumping in the well
CHINA: well, has such a scenario come?
RUSSIA: and FIIs buy
CHINA: if not yet, it is on the cards?
RUSSIA: to be honest.. I don’t know
But one thing I know
for sure
Investor never lose money
trader does
u may have to wait for some time
But lf one is investor
3 year down the line
CHINA: pl add a few words in that line "Investor never loose money" so that i agree
that
RUSSIA: the same money gives you atleast 2 times
CHINA: Investor never lose money IN FUTURE-SECURE BUSINESSES
RUSSIA: See, the definition of an investor is not, That you invest today and keep your neck again and again on the screen
I have something to share here
Milesh said once
CHINA: yesterday, ;looked at suzlon after a long time. i had last bought it at 110 and sold at 123. yday, it was 18
pl
RUSSIA: That, Even when u plant a seed of mango tree... you got to wait for 12 years to get mangos..
I know brother
some sector never saw the sunshine in last 2 years
I will tell you something
There was stock call Raj infra or something like that... was available for just 60 paisa in 1990
to 1992
nobody bought
some did
stock now is 125
another example
HUL ... darling company
agree ?
CHINA: i agree.....
RUSSIA: do you agree ?
did not do anything in the last 10 years
stock was below 150
for all this while
now 425
what I am trying to say is... A specific sector
does great stuff in a particular time
CHINA: RUSSIA, why not act as a "fund manager" instead of an "investor"
RUSSIA: one has to identify
hahhahah
not my cup
CHINA: 150 in bank would have become 600 in 8 yrs
no no, u got me wrong
what i mean with "acting like a fund manager" is
that we should not be emotional with specific stocks
and be cunning like a bania
RUSSIA: correct
that’s ryt
veer ji, you must notice one thing
CHINA: put money where rokra is
RUSSIA: get this very clearly
CHINA: RUSSIA, life is short. need to see money multiply
i also agree that surplus ,money can be invested..
should be invested
RUSSIA: what happen when RBI is on the run to increase the interest rate
market often get in the same mode as we witness today
i have something to share with you
let me call you
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