Minggu, 01 Januari 2012

why markets have a tendency to remain weak in jan?


7 out of last 11 years the market has slipped in january
out of remaining 4 times,
it has remained unchanged once,
slight up after minor dip twice,
and clear up once.

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this is clearly skewed towards weakness

what can be the reasons?

1. the first reason lies in the "christmas factor". christmas (like diwali and id) is the pinnacle of celebration of spirit of life! nobody sells-off during christmas. record superduper buying takes place. not so much of stocks but stuff and services. and all that on cash and credit. why i said "cash and credit" is because all in all, as the christmas and new year hangover ends, the following happen
a. cash in hand goes down, fresh investment dips and redemption pressure increases.
b. credit card shopping stares in face, and further risk taking takes the back seat.

2. second reason has something to do with the "31 march" factor, especially in india
a. tax investments take the driver seat instead of stocks.
b. tax liabilities etc. take control of the available resources. 

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