earthquakes don't kill

long ago
i had read a sentence that hit me hard and stuck inside me
deep.

"earthquakes don't kill, falling structures do."

i remember it was an ad about earthquake resistant structures.

i recalled this super sentence a few days back
while studying how market movements kill retail traders.

so i translated the above line
inline with what happens in the markets.

"price movements don't kill, whipsaws do."

yes, that's true.

if price movements in a particular direction killed,
atleast half the traders who were in the opposite direction trade
would make money
while the those who were in the wrong direction
would quickly change theirs.

but curiously,
traders in both direction lose.
rather steamrolled!

why?

whipsaws!!!

rapid, unpredictable and trapping whipsaws!!!

if you draw a number of horizontal lines across different heights on a intraday price chart
you will see

- that this horizontal line cuts price many times during the day.
- that farther the line from the centre of the price movement of the day, lesser times it cuts the price and hence lesser the number of the whipsaws.

but it is not clear in advance where the centre of the price movement of the day will lie!

all these months and years i had been focusing my attention in trying to predict the next move of the price.

but after the above realisation, i have changed the pressure and focus of my technical force towards anticipating not the price move but towards anticipating the line of minimum whipsaws.