Tampilkan postingan dengan label trader games. Tampilkan semua postingan
Tampilkan postingan dengan label trader games. Tampilkan semua postingan

Selasa, 27 Desember 2011

never trade without having lunch


when i learnt to play chess seriously around 20 yrs ago

one of the first things i learnt was

that a chess game can be broadly divided into three phases

1. opening game

= opening game generally lasts around 15-20 moves. as the name suggests, this is the opening phase when positions are taken and army is deployed. the first move previlege lies with the white camp. the black camp just responds to the opening moves of the white pieces. the white camp is the decider and attacker, black camp is the responder and defender. how the middle game will proceed, what colour the war will take depends on what shape the opening battle takes. since there are dozens (if not hundreds) of opening moves possible, there can be so many number of opening scenarios. the white camp tries to create a battlefield scenario of its choice. the purpose is to lure and trap the enemy in a situation decided by the first mover! it is rare to see the white to attack the black camp in the opening game or vice versa. particularly if the opponent is not a walkover. even kasparov didn't dare that (except rarely) against karpov. any attack without porperly unfolding and readying the defense can be suicidal especially against a strong opponent. so, all in all, opening game is to open and deploy the defence as well as offence.

2. middle game

= middle game takes over from opening game. it typically last for 20-30 moves after the opening game. once the army is deployed and the specific position-for-the-day has been taken, the real battle starts! all tactics, strategems and killings are made in this part. the real loss or gain or manoeuvring happens here. how well, the opponents had read each other and prepared in the opening game shows up here.

3. end game

= the game is all but over by the end of the middle game. though one opponent would have did a collateral damage to the other in the middle game, the game still needs to be won comprehensively. no battle is over till the king is captured or killed or check-mated. some smart warrior kings escape daringly even even from seemingly hopeless positions! an end game generally lasts 10-20 moves but much lesser time.

--

day-trading setup is also like a chess game.

one prominent difference = retail traders always play with black and can only react and respond to what the white camp, the operators do.

another difference = retail traders start attacking the white camp, the operators right in the opening game.

third difference = here the kasparovs or the karpovs or the anands play against novices!

a trading day can be divided into three phases

1. opening phase

=  opening phase is the one when the operators set the battlefield for the day. everyday, they come up with a different trap. everyday, the setting and situation is different. in the opening phase, operators butcher the retail traders who come charging without waiting.....just swept in the rush of blood. opening game is the phase which is often deceptively contra to the trend. this is the time when dreams are sold by the operators. mirages and expectations and desires of retail traders are treachorously fanned and fuelled by the white camp. and when the trapping is complete, the middle game is a one sided affair. when the operators just trap the early blind moths desperate to enter the fire!  

this opening phase of trading typically lasts till the midpoint of the session - the lunch time!

2. middle phase

= once the drama, the bluff, the trap, the volatility, the contra-dream, the lure is over in the morning session, the operators are left with no option but to do what sanity and trend and fundamentals allow. they swifty start doing what they should be doing.

3. end phase

= like a chess game, the trading end game is just a small tail.....more of a formality......sometimes to dress the wounds of the loser....sometimes to kill him decisively. mostly it happens after in the last half hour or so.

--

big moves happen mostly in the afternoon. what happens in the forenoon session are not big moves but bluffs and whipsaws.

you will rarely see direction changing (except once at most) in the afternoon session.

you will always see big move after lunch whereas you will notice that forenoons are mostly dull or indecisive or rangebound.

--

amateurs mostly trade in the opening phase, professionals mostly trade in the middle phase.

--


whipsaws are aplenty before lunch and rare after lunch.

avoid trading without lunch, before lunch.

Senin, 12 Desember 2011

how about winning?

do u play games?

when was the last time u played cricket?
are you a batsman or bowler or alrounder or "jonty" fielder?

and when was the last time u played football?
are you a center forward or anyone-play-anywhere?

did you play well?
did you enjoy playing?

what else do you play?

computer games?

which ones?

and do you play games with people?
at office?
in society?
life in general?

how well do you play?
do you enjoy playing?
do you play consciously or has it become a second nature?

and here is the most important question
do you use indicators to play all of the games i talked above?
charts? software? tips?

well,well,well...

i think you got what i want to say...

games are games are games....
they are to be played with head and hands and legs.....
mental and physical skills are developed......
talent and enjoyment are the bedrock of being a champion in any game
hardwork does the rest.

and by the way
do you play stock trading?

well, you read it right
i said "play" stock trading?

obviously not.
you "do" stock trading.

and that is why
you use software, charts, indicators, etc. etc.

all
except mental and physical skills
without enjoyment!

why not play stock trading?
why not take it as a game?

because money is involved??
well, money is involved in cricket and soccer and other sports as well?
do they make a move as per charts and indicators?

if sony was to introduce a trading game for its playstation
would you play it with charts and indicators?
chances are that you would
given the habits!

but what if you play it like you play other games?
what if you first play a few times understanding
the "controls"
the "levels"
the "rules"
the "curves and diffculties and challenges"?

what if you lose some times
then taste your first success
then win more often
then develop the habit of winning
and then become a professional?

the fact is
that indicators and technicals and charts and bla bla
have taken the fun out of the "game"
the biggest realtime game of all times!

and fun is not just "fun" that has gone
alongwith has gone the sub-conscious "learning"!

millions and millions of "trader" minds have been locked for sub-conscious game-programming.
rather, they have become a game for the big pockets!
they have become a "pokemon" in the games operators are playing!

how about learning the game of trading?
how about playing it?
how about becoming a kid once again?

how about winning?

Kamis, 24 Februari 2011

6 rules to avoid getting trapped by operators!

you can't beat the operators

so the best thing

and the only thing you can and should do is

be with the operator!

===

here are the 6 rules for being with the operator (dedicated to mihir shah who provoked me to coin these)

* expect the opposite of the expectation to happen

= the one u think is against logic, is not easy to happen (like fall after huge fall or rise after already huge rise etc.), the one which is against logic, one which is not obvious

* be prepared for unexpected directional changes at unexpected times to unexpected extents. even expect extraordinary straight gradual climb up or climb down when everyone is expecting change in direction.......this is not jugglary of words, it is the straightest i could put it! if u say it is difficult, who said trading was easy (till ofcourse you train yourself!). having said it, let me add that doing all this requires full attention fulltime! only a well trained trader can hope to make money. otherwise, trading is a bermuda triangle if not a black hole!

* in cricket, fast bowler kills not just with a rocket ball but also with slower ball. similarly, in trading, if a move is slow, don't mistake it to be weak and short-term, and if it is fast don't label it immediately as big and sustainable move. a slow move may be a bull-dozer and fast move may be high decibel quicky! anyway, it requires lot of pratice and training to achieve this finesse to negotiate the challenge of the jumbo operators.

* never worry about zig-zag movement. look for the direction of the zig-zag!

* in trading, forget about fundamentals. they are just excuses!

* and last, but not the least, be with the minority (especially while trading in options)

how to trap traders (operators' manual)

* direction

= do opposite to expectations

= do the unthinkable

= do opposite to the logic

= do the difficult-to-do

= if both bulls and bears are equally divided about the direction, trap both by being rangebound till they divide in majprity-minority ratio.


* change

= keep changing the direction

= do it with stealth


* extent of directional move

= small, big, very small, very big? keep changing? keep them guessing

= how soon will the next direction change - keep them confused


* pace of the move

= do it slowly so that they don't come to know what is exactly happening

= do it so fast that they can't do anything about it


* never move straight

= move in zig-zag

---

and how do they do it? what tools do they use?

# support

= withdraw support to buying during upmove and it will fall

= withdraw support to selling during downmove and it will rise

= support buying and it will soar

= support selling and it will sink


the objective:

trap the majority

at the cost of the minority

---

how?

keep them guessing

keep them confused

catch them on the wrong foot

if u think operators are against the fundamentals

think again!

they do what fundamentals tell

but in the least obvious

and least predictable way.


and if you think

that during strong and big rallies

majority are with the rally

you are mistaken

it is again

the minority that is calling the shot

with majority money!

is their only one operator?

no....there are many

but as compared to the number of retail and small trading houses

these are very few

but with much much more financial muscle.

if they are more than one

how do they co-ordinate?

they don't co-ordinate with each other

they co-ordinate indirectly

via common principles mentioned above.

so what can you do?

simple

trade with an operator's mind.

as a french saying goes -

to be a good bull fighter

learn to be a bull!

but

when you catch their bluff

don't shout

just sit quiet

and see the drama unfold!

Selasa, 11 Januari 2011

remembering my uncle!

when i was a kid

my uncle from U.S.

used to visit us every year.

whenever he came

he brought many toys and gadgets for me!

i always waited eagerly for his next visit

dreaming what gift he would bring for me this time!

--

for the time he stayed with us

he would play with me

and let me win!

he would teach me tricks

which got me accolades

when i displayed those tricks in front of my friends!

--

when he returned back

he left behind packets of candies and chocolates

pens and other memorabilia!

--

i remembered him long after he went back

and would wait for his next visit!!!

--

i was reminded of him after long time

after yesterday's big fall in the market.

--

FIIs are like traders' uncles in stock market!

they too are from US and other rich countries!

they too come here every year

and go back!

every year we eagerly look forward to their visit!

when they come

they indirectly bring us lots of gifts

by way of profit

resulting from rise in stock prices!

for the period they stay with us

everyone around them is happy

for their mere presence

is enough to cause stock prices to soar!

--

but the similarity between FII uncles

and my childhood uncle from US

ends here.

--

when the FII uncles are here

and see my stock price slide

they cunningly don't intervene

to stop the slide

even when they easily can!

they let me bleed!

and step in only when i am unconscious!!

--

they use their big moneybags

to unsettle every trade i and my friends take!

they start buying things from everybody

causing others to start buying too!

and when the price has gone too high

they start distributing

those very things

in our neighbourhood

at much higher cost!

they play tricks

but unlike my childhood uncle

take our money!

--

these uncles

when they go back

they don't leave me with candies and chocolates!

rather, they take away all my hidden candies and sweets!

they take all toys of my kids!

they take back much more than they bring here!

they leave back memorabilia of nightmares!

--

today i am remembering my childhood uncle!