Tampilkan postingan dengan label patience. Tampilkan semua postingan
Tampilkan postingan dengan label patience. Tampilkan semua postingan

Rabu, 28 Maret 2012

love and trade


you can't become rich
without the power of consistent multiplication

you can't multiply
without taking risk

you can't take and survive risk
without discpline

you can't be disciplined
without confidence in discipline

you can't have confidence
without knowledge

you can't have the real knowledge
without struggle

you can't survive the struggle
without determination

you can't be determined
without passion

you can't be passionate
without loving the occupation!

trading is about love
before it is about money.

Jumat, 29 Juli 2011

tip in the pot to the top


all tips are not bad.


some are good

few are excellent.


but surprisingly

almost all

especially the ones mass circulated

seem to go in opposite direction

for some time

before they show their worth.


reason?


well,

the technical calls are based on

technicals.


good technical tips

are pro-rally

and more importantly

pro-fundamentals.


big-pocket operators

know it and see it all.


while they certainly can't ignore

the fundamentals and the rally for long

they definitely have the reason, intention and power

to rock the boat

in opposite direction

atleast for some time.


good "tipsters"

know all this.


they try to give tips

after some delay.


i.e. they don't pass on the tip

the moment one pops up!


but hold it

keep it in the "pots of ready tips"

till the tips season out

mature

age

get despirited

denatured

and

de-stinged!


once the operators are done with their tricks

the tippers

reach their golden "pots"

recheck

and release the tips!


a good tip

must go in the pot

before going to the top!

Kamis, 14 Juli 2011

point of smooth sailing

i constantly try to figure out
how the market can trick or fool
the majority of investors.

then after the majority have been fooled
i get in
at what i call
the 'pointof smooth sailing.'

a so-called failed signal
can actually be the beginning of
a more complex pattern
that is far more reliable
than the initial signal
based on a conventional pattern.

- mark minervini

Minggu, 03 Juli 2011

cheetahs and sparrows

(excerpts from interview with mark weinstein)

"........i have a real fear of the markets.

i have found that the greatest traders are the ones

who are most afraid of the markets.

my fear of the markets has forced me

to hone my timing with great precision.

when I am trading properly,

it is like a pool player running racks.

if my gut feel of market conditions is not right,

i don't trade.

my timing is a combination of experience

and my nervous system.

if my nervous system tells me to get out of the position,

it is because the market action triggers something in my knowledge

and experience that I have seen before.

i also don't lose much on my trades,

because I wait for the exact right moment.

most people will not wait for an environment to tip itself off.

they will walk into the forest when it is still dark,

while I wait until it gets light.

although the cheetah is the fastest animal in the world

and can catch any animal on the plains,

it will wait until it is absolutely sure it can catch its prey.

it may hide in the bush for a week,

waiting for just the right moment.

it will wait for a baby antelope,

and not just any baby antelope,

preferably one that is sick or lame.

only then, when there is no chance it can lose it's prey,

does it attack.

that, to me, is the epitome of professional trading.

when I trade at home, I often watch the sparrows in my garden.
when feed them bread, they take just a little piece at a time

and fly away.

they keep on flying back and forth, taking small bits of bread.

they may have to make a hunderd stabs at a piece of bread to get what a
pigeon gets at one time,

but that is why a pigeon is a pigeon.

you will never be able to shoot a sparrow,

it is just too fast.

that is the way I day trade."

(the cheetah is the analogy to position trading
and the sparrow for day trading.
both animals will wait for the can't-lose circumstances.)

Sabtu, 02 Juli 2011

when to buy the declining stocks?

"first they sink to the bottom.

then they come up;

but not right away.

they've got to be good and dead a couple of days.

it isn't time for these corpses to rise to the surface.

they are not quite dead yet."


- reminiscences of a stock operator

Minggu, 12 Juni 2011

rat sense

a trader was always losing
despite good knowledge
of technical indicators
and operator tactics.

soon
he got frustrated.

he stopped trading
and went to his ancestral house
in the remote village.

cool breeze
lush green fields
zero pollution....

everything felt so great
except
irritating
rats!

a lot many were there!

one evening
he took out a mousetrap
stuck a piece of bread in the hook
stretched the trap ready
and went to sleep.

he was woken up
abruptly
not by the alarm clock
but by the loud clap
of the mousetrap!

the trader jumped out of his bed
switched on the light
looked down
and saw his prize
- a small lean mouse!

he was feeling so good!
just like he used to feel
when he used to book
the rare profit
in stock market!

--

he switched off the lights
and got down relaxed
to resume his sleep!

hardly had he lied down
when he noticed
chik-chik sounds
of rats!

he turned on the light in a jiffy
and looked at the trap again!

three fat rats
sitting besides the dead body of their poor lean buddy
were merrily enjoying the piece of bread!

as he got closer
they all vanished!

the trader was red in the face
just as he used to feel
when operators used to take his money
in the market!

next evening
he again laid the mousetrap.

as expected
he was again awakened
right in the dead of the night!

this time
he kept lying in the bed for some minutes
and turned on the light
only when he heard the screeching
of the rats again!

as he looked at the crime scene
he was shocked to see what he saw!

though the trap had got its prize
-a lean small rat
with his neck in the trap,

four fat rats
were sitting by the ringside
feasting on the bread!

instead of getting angry
the trader was amused!

he was amazed to see the
cunning strategy of the fat rats!

the fat rats wanted the piece of bread
but they were aware of the trap too!

they didn't know what the trap was
they didn't know when or how the trap will go off!

all they knew was
that there was a trap
and that this trap usually went off
only once per night
and thereafter
it was always safe to eat the bread!

therefore
they had decided
to always wait
till the hidden trap went-off!

their wait had always paid-off.

some lean hungry greedy desperate mouse
would always fail the patience test
and enter the trap first
...sniffing the bread
inviting a certain death!

and once the trap was exposed
the fat rats would arrive
for their share of the bread!

--

a big smile
beamed on the face of
the dejected, rejected and ejected trader....

he had realised that this precisely was his problem as well!

he was one of the lean hungry desperate traders
who
despite having good technical knowledge
despite having the ability to predict a movement
couldn't see the trap
couldn't wait for the operator trap to be exposed
and went in
always first!

their sacrifice
always exposed the trap before the fat rats
who would then jump in
for the party!

---

next morning
trader woke up
to a new lease of life!

he was ready to go back to mumbai
to trade with the newly acquired
rat sense!

Selasa, 01 Maret 2011

right time to shoot

the 107 year old

96km long

serpentile

narrow gauge toy-train railway line

from kalka

to shimla

passes thru 103 tunnels

(only 102 are in actual use now).

the longest being 1.14km long.

--

the journey in this toy-train

is like travelling to heavens

while still alive!

--

over the clouds

under the clouds

over the bridges

under the bridges

into the tunnels

and out of them!

--

it is as much pleasure travelling in this train

as is there

in shooting it

with a powerful

camera

like a nikon d7000!

--

but obviously

you can't normally shoot it

inside the tunnel!

you've got to shoot it

only when it out of the tunnel!

(just like you can't take an aim at the market

inside the "overnight" tunnel!

you have to wait till it "comes out"

in the morning at the opening bell!)

--

to shoot the heavenly train

(with a camera)

you have to wait till it comes out of

one of the 103 tunnels!

even then

it is not easy to shoot it!

some times

it is behind mountains

while at other times

it gets hidden behind

cluster of deodars and pines.

at times

it vanishes in the folds of the valley!

--

you have to wait for

the suitable opportunity

to shoot

that great photo!

just like

you have to wait

for that correct opportunity

to shoot

that trade!

otherwise

while wasted photo in a digital slr

costs nothing more than a sigh,

a wasted trade in the market

costs something

even to professional

shooters!

Minggu, 16 Januari 2011

say no!

how many times

has it happened with traders

that they entered a trade expecting a move

the move doesn't come

the trade goes the wrong way

the trader books the loss

only to see the market reverse

the way predicted by him

without him!?

this is a typical example of

a right trade at wrong time!

--

why does it happen?

because

"the obvious is obviously wrong"

in the market!

big pockets win only

when they catch u on the wrong foot!

so, what is the golden rule

to avoid entering a right trade at the wrong time?

= always say "no" to the opportunity

which looks like an opportunity!

it is a trap!!

always wait!!!

--

in the words of

Edward Chancellor

"the promise of outsize profits are followed by

the reality of painful losses.

you will make more money in the long run

by restraining your greed!"

and as Mark Twain had said

"I never spotted an opportunity

until it ceased to be one!"