similar situation, different decision

http://www.mudraa.com/trading/143227/0/btst-30july-js.html

dear murliji,

thanks for asking and sound like the echo of my self talk.

1. why i terminated both calls of yday in 10-15 points

= there was a strong "undercurrent" signals for slide down. so i took the intraday downward position. but as is often possible near sma 34 lines, those strong signals are bulldozed. for 1-2 hours, it seemed that the upward movement was a bluff. so while i let the first short position drift without sl, at sufficient high intraday position, i gave my shorts a second shot but this time with stop loss. i went for a stoploss for 2 reasons - a)second trade was more in-the-money and costlier, b)if the market was to still continue to drift up (as it eventually did), i didn't need longer signal to accept that the "undercurrent" was false and an upward rally was in store. therefore, the second short trade was with a tight (but well thought of) 10 point one. the first one was costlier @ 15

2. why i let today's trade ride the roller coster

= yesterday's bulldozing of "short" signal was enough signal of an upward rally. so i had little doubt of going long for overnight. 1% asian market buoyancy in morning hinted that i was right. but the rbi policy was a factor that stood in-between. besides the overnight bullish hints, there were enough signals in the morning that hinted that upward movement was inevitable. i was jittery to see the markets dip in the pre-lunch session, but frankly, i was not surprised. i rechecked the signals and saw buoyant forces again. and i was sure that operators / market forces couldn't bulldoze opposite side signals on consecutive days. plus there were 1-2 more reasons. by now, it was obvious that market forces had used rbi news to play the intraday game. buying and adding to the long positions at the intraday lows was an excellent idea (which i decided against, for some reasons).

i checked signals again after 3 and saw clear btst invitation.

so while squaring yday trades was the acceptance of the limit of adverse trade setup, not squaring today's intraday adverse trade was a tough put-my-foot-down deliberate decision to stick to my understanding.

and all this time, i was almost ready with the backup plan. 

wealth builder, no stoploss trades

http://www.mudraa.com/trading/125400/0/wealth-builder-no-stoploss-trades-js.html

the KBC of stock market

http://www.mudraa.com/singlepost.php?messid=125400

subscription to sms alerts

for details about subscription to the sms alerts of my nifty trades.
pl send an email
mentioning your name, place, email id, and phone number
to

jagmohanshan@gmail.com

taking stock of the trades

results of last 22 trades (recent to backwards)
+26, -22, -20, -32, 0, -13, +33, +162, +38, +89, 0, -9, +31, -14, +30, +44, +46, -11, -8, +30, +72, +44

total +635, -129

net = +506

lessons = 80% of the profit comes from 20% of the trades. but since we can't be sure which 20%, we have to overcome fear and take every trade signal as per our method. also, it is not how many trades hit stop loss that matters, what matters is how less you lose in wrong trades and how you maximise the profit from the right ones! nobody feels good at the ringing of the stoploss bell. but you have to have the heart to keep listening and yet keep trading. few solid trades are worth all the pain! when you are not getting the head or tail of the situation it is either most likely not your fault and something is happening behind the curtain OR you are not in form. in both cases, stop trading for the day. (today being one of such days. and when you are going great guns, cricket ball looks like a football, keep going and turn your guns into a tank.

disclaimer = i missed some juicy trades too which don't figure in the above list. and was lucky in some which show here. being lucky as well as unlucky is also part of trading life.

niftyshots

dear friends,

i am starting a new dedicated blog to share my trades


www.niftyshots.blogspot.com


in this blog, i will be sharing (on retrospect basis), my short term trades in nifty.

i will share my self talk, lessons, learnings, discoveries, ideas etc.

i will be sharing these trades in real time thru email to the paid subscribers.

i will be sharing 8-12 nifty trades per series in futures and options per month


of a few hours duration


targeting an average of 30-60 nifty points per successful trade.


for details regarding subscription

send your email to

jagmohanshan@gmail.com


0 9418037474

10 trades

to kick in some thrill, in this experimental thread, i shall share my next 10 short-term trades (1-2 days, 100-200 points) in bank nifty (options). i will be numbering these trades and monitor the results. i expect this series of 10 trades to be over in next 25 trading sessions. these may not be one per day.......these can be lesser or more depending upon exact indications as per my method. 


i will be using my most trusted indicators for the trades.


(these are not recommendations. just open sharing of my trades to push me harder into the discipline of trading........ if i lose, i pay with my ego...........pl don't follow blindly, pl use ur own discretion before trading.)


this is also to share that since some weeks i am focusing totally on bank nifty. i take multiple lot positions but have divided the capital in three parts. and i use 3 different logics to engage all these. the method behind this thread is one of those three independent logics.


this thread is over once 10 trades are over.


what i mean by 3 different logics for 3 parts is = that i engage each part on separate logic. so, when one logic gives green signal one lot goes in the trade. second lot goes in only when the second logic gives permission....similarly the third one. i never enter all lots in one go. all logics can't be wrong simultaneously. also, all these three trades are of different durations and run concurrently. it is like 3 traders trading simultaneously as per their respective head.

===================pl use the following url to reach the thread

http://www.mudraa.com/singlepost.php?newp=1&messid=104515

what the smart money may be planning!

dear friends,

recently i have been working hard to find and understand some reliable methods to know what the smart money is doing, what the "deep pocket" operators' next move is expected to be.

i have been fortunate enough to crack one of their code using put call data for all strike prices.

in this thread, i will be sharing my open notes regarding my analyses of "smart money" plans for immediate future based on my new method. i will try to update this daily (time permitting).

(please note that this method needs further work and my analyses must not be based for blind trading by anyone. please treat this thread as pure sharing of my notes. please do your own research before trading. also, pl note that as put call data changes everyday, fresh analyses is required everyday. in case i fail to update this thread daily, pl take this caution in consideration)

Js

=======


pl follow the link below for the updates and discussion.

http://www.mudraa.com/singlepost.php?messid=102662

what do rsi and willaim%r say?

one of my pride learnings have been rsi and william%r.

in this thread i will be sharing the outlook for nifty as well as bank nifty etc. on the basis of these two super indicators.

i wanted to keep this thread different from the one based on options data for 2 reasons

1. options data is an altogether different language

2. options data can tell you reasonably accurately for the next 1-2-3 days whereas indicators can help you see a few days or weeks or months in advance.

(please treat this thread as pure sharing of my notes. please do your own research before trading.)

 Jagmohan



http://www.mudraa.com/trading/103696/0/what-do-rsi-and-williamr-say-js.html

my open trade diary

*********************self talk: for busy positional/swing traders, end-of-the-day (EoD) and mid-of-the-day (MoD) 10 minute analyses is ok.

*********************self talk: take care of the loss and method, profit will take care of itself. rather, if choking loss and sticking to the method becomes the primary objective of the trading game, it can wonderfully rewarding and satisfying.

*********************self talk : there is no time-table for a revenge of the loss. the humiliation of an incidental or accidental defeat or loss has to be absorbed. rather, a loss can and should never be considered as a lost-territory to be won back by equal or bigger gain. a loss should be framed and kept as a reminder-trophy. gains will come. but they will come on their own merit.

*********************lesson: when things go wrong embrace method even tighter;

*********************self talk: those who are not full time traders (can't sit in front of terminal all the time) must not day trade. rather, they should also not attempt positional or swing trading if their method is not well advanced. even a small delay in squaring-off the wrong position when u r away from the terminal, or, even a small error in judgement, or, even a small loophole in a system, can hit hard. trading is either a full time job or a part-time precision hobby with well developed and practiced method. hone the method with low risk options rather than futures.

*********************self talk: stick to options, the hit in options is much lesser than futures in case of a mistake.

*********************self talk: absorb the punch, step back, take a break, fight back with technique and not emotions. recovery with the right technique is as swift as any loss!

*********************lesson: use 5min chart instead of 30min chart for swing trading for better timing.


trade 8:
24 march 9.18am
sold nifty futures march series at 5515
positional
squared at 5645
loss= 130 per lot

trade 7:
23 march 10:11 am
bought 5300 PE march series at 16.95
positional

trade 6:
22 march 2.56pm
bought 5300 PE march series at 36.7
positional

trade 5:
21march 11:31am
bought 5300 PE march series at 54.9
positional

**********lesson: avoid buying anti-trend options.
**********lesson: opportunity is like spirit.more u let it age, the better it becomes. don't be too eager and early to latch on to opportunity.
**********lesson: to avoid booking profit too early and to avoid terminating winners too early, instead of squaring off the position and going reverse at indicator signal, just take the reverse option and let it run concurrently!

trade 4:
18 march 11:13am
bought 5500CE march series at 65.5
positional
squared at 46.90
loss = 18.6 per lot
==================================
trade 3:
17 march 12:24pm
bought 5400PE march series at 70.8
positional
--
squared at 98.55 at 10.28am 18mar
profit = 27.75 per lot
==================================
trade 2:
16 march 10:15am
bought 5600CE march series at 68.8
positional
--
squared at 55.9 at 12:49pm 17march
loss = 12.9 points per lot
==================================
trade 1:
14 Mar 11:18am
bought 5400 PE march series at 77.5
positional
--
sold at 119.3 on 15mar
profit = 41.8 points per lot
==================================