how market beat my best tools

1. rsi / william

= this is one deadly combination.....my pride.
it speaks to me. it tells me a lot of crucial info.
but after prolonged use and going thru quite a few seasons
i found that operators can bull doze these!
operators create extended periods of time when this combo becomes ineffective
like the bermuda triangle where compasses and altimeters and other instruments are reported to stop working or go mad!
when market comes out of its "bermuda triangle" this combo starts working perfectly as if nothing ever happened.
but when do the operators take the market plane in and out of the triangle makes it highly stressful and unprofitable.
following the instruments when you don't know that the readings in them are faulty can and will crash you!

2. options data spread

= i have cracked a code in this and love it.
just like rsia nd william combo above, many a times i found that operators bulldoze what options data spread say.
however, the probability of this happening in the first half of a monthly series is much higher than in the second half
when the operators dare not get caught in their own net they have woven in the first.

3. 8-34 sma

= this is one simple and hell of an effective tool in my armoury.
it works perfectly well in trending markets but is prone to the "bermuda triangle" effect during ranges!
however, its bermuda triangle is different from those in the universe of rsi and options data spread.
so this seems to work where others fail and struggles where others work.
this is one of the best tools but has a serious shortcoming - you can't leave the terminal!
you can't be a swing or positional trader with this and have the luxury of switch off the terminal and go shopping!
you have to keep glued to the screen and keep revising the trailing stop loss or SAR order (stop and reverse - but always in the trade). also, this method has a success ratio of around 40% with rest 60% being whipsaws. but as a consolation, 40% yields large profits and 60% throw less loss resulting in handsome returns. all you have to do it.....follow without head.....just keep following what it does.....even when (inevitably) it frustrates you and generates giants waves of self-doubt during whipsaws. consistency and mental toughness is the key with this simple but powerful tool.

4. elliot wave

= this is a very fascinating tool.
it seems to work most of the time. and when it works nothing feels better in the world. but the trouble is....when it doesn't, it
shatters all the confidence you have gained till then. doubt is always there. still, when it seems to be not working, if you convince yourself that the markets are trying to make a bigger and outer wave, you may be damn right and continue to love this tool. but still, i have seen many instances when this tool is bulldozed and silenced by the operators for some days or weeks. and that is what does the damage...tot he confidence of the trader and his or her bank balance.

5. intraday options data

= this one is a simple and promising tool for intraday but i have seen this failing during start or resumption of the rallies. its
success ratio, therefore has been around 40-45% (which is enough to put you off). still, i use it as an advisor tool.....like a
superstition you know may not work but gives confidence.....more of a habit!

6. yesterday/today range breakout

= yesterday range breakout is reasonably accurate but happens only 5-6 times a month. even then, the move may not be that big. so can't depend on it too much. can't make it the central theme.

7. btst

= i base my btst stbt decisions on four factors. 1)william% r movement on 5min chart, 2) pro-trend, 3) rsi-wlliam combo reading, 4) false sma crosover.
this is the least stressful game. however, clear signals of chances of a decent move are 6-8 per month. still, that is not bad and
this makes this better than others.

8. call/put options strategies

= these are complicated and work only if you have guessed the weather of the day rightly. e.g. different combinations are required in case of range bound movements than in sharp unexpected moves. also, chosing the right boundaries of options you select is crucial. options arena is designed and heavily tilted towards options writers/sellers and that too professionals which have practically unlimited money and sophisticated softwares to manage it all.