Jumat, 01 Juli 2011

should technical traders be bothered about fundamentals?

yes and no.

yes, because you come to know which tantrum of indicator to react to

and which to ignore.

you know the broader logic and winds.

--

no, because the fundamentals

(including the perception of the fundamental

and the unknown, unrevealed, hidden causes)

are priced in the chart.

any further weighing in of the fundamentals

over and above what the indicators are saying

can cause

overemphasis

and hence

over-reaction.

--

technical traders should trade

purely on the basis of the technicals

read under the light of broader fundamental currents.

fundamental sense will help you identify

which indicator indications to ignore.

--

in the words of

lawrence livingstone

in

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator



"there is always a reason for fluctuations,

but the tape does not concern

itself with the why and wherefore.

It doesn't go into explanations.

I didn't ask the tape why when I was fourteen, and

I don't ask it today, at forty.

The reason for what a certain stock does today

may not be known for two or three days,

or weeks, or months.

But what the dickens does that matter?

Your business with the tape is now -- not tomorrow.

The reason can wait.

But you must act instantly or be left.

Time and again I see this happen.

You'll remember that Hollow Tube went down

three points the other day

while the rest of the market rallied sharply.

That was the fact.

On the following Monday you saw that the directors passed the dividend.

That was the reason.

They knew what they were going to do,

and even if they didn't sell the stock themselves they at least didn't buy it.

There was no inside buying;

no reason why it should not break. "

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