the pugmarks (19mar)

fii's are lions of this jungle......it pays to try and read their pugmarks.......what they are doing viz. a viz. what eh market is doing and may do......in this thread i will be sharing my views on the pugmarks i see.....

19 march , EoD

now this is very amusing!

despite the scary fall for third straight trading session

fii's are again net buyers (160crores)

amazing!!!

they are obviously not buying non-stop to lose! enough hint from their pugmarks!

(and imagine.....dii's have been net sellers since days and weeks.....the day they turn buyers can't be too away!)

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last week i said

"16mar EOD

would you believe this!!!

market lost lot of promised ground on 14th, yet fii's bought 1659crore worth stocks!

market fell approx. 100 points on 15th, yet fii's bought 156 crore worth stocks!!

market fell approx. 100 points from top on 16th (today), yet fii's bought 883 crore worth stocks!!!

if they are shopping (and not selling) at 5500, 5400 and 5300, are they doing so to lose by letting the market fall?

no way! "

what the smart money may be planning (19mar)

19mar 2:52pm, nifty cmp=5259spot

as per nifty march series options spread as of now,

operators are losing not-so-less.

downside from here is highly unlikely.

upside in 1-2 days is limited to 5350 or so.

what do rsi-william%r say (19mar)

19 mar, EoD

cmp=5257 spot.

as per 1month chart with 30min tick 

the market is at the high probability bounce point.

though a runaway rally on upside is unlikely, some upside from here likely.

we are still in a dangerous slide zone, but atleast a good wall of hope, and corner of pause is here.

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(niftyshots.blogspot.com)

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digital trading

analog technology was good
but had a lot of limitations
and had to go.
it did, except for traces.

digital techcnology took over.

strangely,
in trading
majority traders are still trading
the analog way.

and not so surprisingly
the operators and big players
are into digital trading.

no,
i am not talking about the trading terminals
or software....

i am talking about the method of trading.

analog style of trading
is trading by tracking the exact path of the market movement
and basing every trading decision
including entering, exiting etc.
on the basis of this.

on the contrary
digital style of trading
is trading without tracking the exact path of market movement
and instead trading from point to point.
it is a simple case of on or off,
all you are interested in is
'has the price reached the target?'

e.g. consider a situation
where the market forces and fundamental factors
are sure to take the market higher from current point A to higher point B
it is no longer a question of whether the market will go to point B
the only questions are
when and how?

if you are trading the analog way
and following every twist and turn and drama of the priceline
caused by operators
like a snake follows the pipe of snake charmer,
emotional roller coaster ride
will cause you to get in out as dictated by the operators.
this is the mother of all trading mistakes
and trading traps.

on the other hand
if you are trading the digital way
and have taken a position near point A
and are not bothered to know and see
which timetable and route the price follow
to reach point B
as long as it does hit point B
you are sure to remain relatively stressfree
and handsomely profitable.

all you need to do before that is

1. get the eyes to know the likely move.
2. change your mindset and habit from analog to digital.

remember, operators trade digital
and make sure that you keep trading analog.

why are elliot waves the way they are?

elliot waves are nothing but the graphical representation of the cyclic behavioural DNA of the psychology of the market.

to understand the why and how of the elliot wave, let's imagine the waves talking. what they say can reveal what they mean and why they are the way they are.

this will help us understand and appreciate the rules behind elliot waves as well.

======================

what the waves say?

wave 1 = "feel like doing 'it'. let's do it"

wave 2 = "should we have really started doing it?"

wave 3 = "yes, we were right, now stop thinking, stop doubting. go all out and do it good and big. those who missed, pl come along! those who still fear can join us on the way!!!"

(this is why wave 3 is the longest and has to be the longest, otherwise this theory hasn't been satisfied and will have to be)

wave 4 = did we over do? we might have got carried away. shouldn't we, therefore, retrace?

wave 5 = no, we hadn't overdone it. and in the fear of having overdone it, we have still left something undone. let's complete it. and let the last of the laggards come in.

types of trader emotional states and what to do about them

experiences and learning in stock market are unending.

recently i realised
that there are some select
repeated emotions
which repeatedly trap traders.

i have tried to identify some of them.

below, i sharing some of these emotional states
and will keep on identifying and sharing new ones
as and when i identify.

sometimes, these emotions are kicked itself
due to your own reasons.

but majority of the times
these are caused by the shepherd operators
in the trader sheep herds.

hope these are useful to you.

=====================================

emotion : hangover
what you feel = "bull or bear run will continue"
what you do = get complacent, lower your guard, ignore signals, take big positions at euphoria points
what you should do = be aware of the hangover. drink a lot of water.

emotion : hallucinations
what you feel = "start seeing the sunrise or sunset, not just imagining it, when none is there nor near"
what you do = take premature positions, keep holding on to these
what you should do = be aware of the hallucinations, stay awake, trust what you see, keep imagination under check. drink a lot of water

emotion : psychosis
what you feel = "this may be real but i don't like it. this may not be real but i like it. i want it and will have it. at all costs!"
what you do = you turn adamant and stick to losing positions or chicken out despite knowing all.
what you should do =  treat yourself of psychosis. drink a lot of water.

emotion : neurosis
what you feel = "this is not happening."
what you do = you don't believe what you see and pray that it changes.
what you should do = get treatment. drink a lot of water.

emotion : hypnotised, armaan, fools paradise, believe just because it is beautiful.
what you feel = "this is nice. this must be real."
what you do = get emotionally swept away. believe it just because it is beautiful. believe the fools paradise and not only fail to capitalise the fake opportunity but suffer in the end.
what you should do = don't believe everything that glitters, trust your head, don't put the cart before the horse, see the difference between a balloon and an aeroplane, use the rumours and false runs.

emotion : numbness
what you feel = don't feel anything. totally confused and lost.
what you do = don't act on losing positions, or jump in with eyes closed, or close winning positions.
what you should do = whenever feeling dizzy, stop the car, pull it aside and stay there till you regain consciousness. same about trading. don't try to be a bollywood hero. stepping out and being wise is no less heroism. come back to senses. drink a lot of water.

======================================

just identify your emotion and choose your course of action.
be your own psycho-analyst.